Clinton’s chances of winning are 58.5% as of July 22 according to Nate Silver’s blog 538 ( http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) . 538 forecasted the 2012 results in every state, and only missed one state in 2008.
Clinton’s percentage has dropped steadily from the first predictions a few weeks ago when Clinton had over an 80% chance of winning. Since then Clinton was hammered by the critique ofthe FBI Director for her carelessness of handling emails with classified docuements and attacks from the Republican National Convention.
According to a recent issue in The Atlantic Monthly, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/07/how-american-politics-went-insane/485570/ on how American politics went insane, the profiles of the people who are backing Trump indicate they want to destroy Washington as it is and believe he can do it. He’s made money as a businessamn and is successful. According to the same article those same people also do not know how the political system works, but they know it’s rigged and it’s not rigged in favor of them. They angry and they’re out to destroy what’s there. They’ll take their chances on what Trump can build despite his history of lies and scandals.
Trump’s supporters believe they are his first priority.
Incredibly they are believers in light of his record that he has put himself first ahead of his partners, his students at Trump University, his stockholders, his eimployees and his bankers.
They believe him because he knows how angry they are and articulates their feelings well. They see no other option.
It makes no sense to attack Trump. His supporters have to hear and learn he has abandoned people in the past and is very likely to do it again in favor or himself. Their chance of doing well after the wreckage are very small based on his past performances.