For those trapped in discussions about the tiresome, irrelevant speculation in the Pacific Northwest about whether the Seahawks can win the 2015 Super Bowl,” I recommend three defensible, informed answers that will allow you to terminate the discussion or divert it a more interesting topic.
My answers are: “Yes, of course they can.” “They have a better chance of winning than any other team.” “But don’t count on it.”
The Seahawks can win because NFL owners equalize each team’s possibilities of winning and that is a more interesting topic. Equality increases fan interest. The league attempts to assign winning teams harder schedules. Losing teams pick first in the college draft. Team payrolls have an upper limit which causes championship teams problems because star players get huge increases, forcing winning teams to release other players.
Teams with losing records have won Super Bowls the following season. The most improbable were the St Louis Rams, which won Super Bowl 2000 after a record of 4 -12.
Yes, the Seahawks could win in 2015. The problem is virtually any other team could also. Wouldn’t it be nice if our economic policies created equal opportunities for individuals?
I believe the Seahawks have a better chance than any other team this year because they won last year, have a major home field advantage and a young team.
Las Vegas preseason odds makers have established the Seahawks as co-favorites with Denver, although they were wrong about last year’s preseason favorites: the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints.
Odds Makers rank the Seahawks as co-favorites because the 12th Man fan crazies give the Seahawks a major home field advantage.
Unfortunately, the Denver Broncos have a home field advantage also because their oxygen-thin air weakens visiting teams.
The Seahawks would have the NFL’s best home field advantage if they put their 12th Man fans in a stadium on a mile-high ledge of Mt Rainer to reduce oxygen levels.
The Seahawks victory last year improves their odds this year, because Super Bowl winners win more Super Bowls in the next ten years compared to non-winners. Over the last forty four years, 55.9 percent of the Super Bowl winners had won a Super Bowl within the previous ten years, based on the recent analysis by Neil Payne, a senior sportswriter for ESPN network’s website http://www.fivethirtyeight.com.
The Broncos haven’t won in the last ten years, so for the foreseeable ten years the Seahawks are more likely to win a Super Bowl than the Broncos.
Super Bowl winners probably won more often because they could build better teams by starting with better talent than non-winners.
Building talent is easier if you have younger players because fewer leave, retire or get injured. The Seahawks average age is the third lowest of all Super Bowl winners that won again within ten years.
The two teams with lower averages are the 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 1981 San Francisco 49ers, both of which won three more super bowls within ten years. The younger the Super Bowl winners, the more Super Bowls they went on to win.
Coach Carroll and GM Schneider have built an exceptional young team. Sports analyst Paine says, “… because of their youth these Seahawks are in a situation where the odds of winning another championship are particularly heightened.”
All this is terrific news for 12th Man fans for the next ten year, but don’t count on them winning in 2015.
Even as co-favorites Odds Makers estimate they have a slim chance of only of 16.7 percent this year. If my doctor says I would have a 16.7 percent chance of surviving surgery, I’d be terrified.
The reality is NFL owners have designed the system to limit repeats.
The Seahawks could have a winning season, win their division, enter the playoffs and win the conference championship. But they could lose the Super Bowl and consider themselves failures because they couldn’t beat the system in 2015. That’s the way NFL owners want it.
Cheer on the Seahawks!. Go 12th Man! Good things happen, but don’t focus on 2015. Keep a ten-year perspective.
If you’re trapped in a discussion about the Seahawks repeating in 2015 and want to end or divert the discussion by tossing in a few comments to lead to a more interesting discussion, show your mastery of the topic by saying, “Yes, of course they can win Super Bowl 2015.” “They are the most likely preseason favorites.” “But don’t count on it.”
Your friends will thank you in 2015.